CARDIORESPIRATORY FITNESS, VO2max, AND EXERCISE CAPACITY AS PREDICTORS OF CARDIOVASCULAR RISK AND MORTALITY: A NARRATIVE REVIEW

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31435/ijitss.3(51).2026.6616

Keywords:

Cardiorespiratory Fitness, VO2max, Exercise Capacity, Cardiovascular Risk, Mortality, Physical Activity

Abstract

Background. Cardiovascular disease is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Physical inactivity and sedentary behavior are important modifiable risk factors. Cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF), often expressed as VO2max, VO2peak, metabolic equivalents (METs), exercise capacity, or estimated CRF, has gained attention as a predictor of cardiovascular and overall health.

Aim. This review evaluated the prognostic significance of CRF in relation to cardiovascular risk, cardiovascular outcomes, cardiovascular mortality, all-cause mortality, and premature mortality in adults.

Materials and methods. This narrative review was based on English-language publications identified in PubMed and Google Scholar. Meta-analyses, systematic reviews, observational cohort studies, clinical reviews, expert statements, and interventional studies relevant to cardiorespiratory fitness, exercise capacity, cardiovascular prevention, mortality, and cardiac rehabilitation were included in the synthesis.

Results. The reviewed evidence consistently indicates that higher CRF is associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and cardiovascular events. This relationship has been observed using various assessment methods, including directly measured VO2max or VO2peak, treadmill-derived peak METs, exercise capacity, and estimated CRF. CRF also appears to have prognostic value in populations with obesity, diabetes, hypertension, coronary artery disease, and heart failure. Changes in CRF over time may be associated with changes in mortality risk. These findings support the interpretation of CRF as a modifiable prognostic marker.

Conclusions. CRF should be regarded as a measure of physical performance as well as an indicator of cardiovascular, respiratory, metabolic, and functional health. Its assessment may support cardiovascular risk stratification, prevention, and rehabilitation strategies in adult populations.

References

Lavie, C. J., Ozemek, C., Carbone, S., Katzmarzyk, P. T., & Blair, S. N. (2019). Sedentary behavior, exercise, and cardiovascular health. Circulation Research, 124(5), 799–815. https://doi.org/10.1161/CIRCRESAHA.118.312669

Tucker, W. J., Fegers-Wustrow, I., Halle, M., Haykowsky, M. J., Chung, E. H., & Kovacic, J. C. (2022). Exercise for primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease: JACC Focus Seminar 1/4. Journal of the American College of Cardiology, 80(11), 1091–1106. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacc.2022.07.004

Mi, M. Y., Perry, A. S., Krishnan, V., & Nayor, M. (2025). Epidemiology and cardiovascular benefits of physical activity and exercise. Circulation Research, 137(2), 120–138. https://doi.org/10.1161/CIRCRESAHA.125.325526

Kraus, W. E., Powell, K. E., Haskell, W. L., Janz, K. F., Campbell, W. W., Jakicic, J. M., et al. (2019). Physical activity, all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, and cardiovascular disease. Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise, 51(6), 1270–1281. https://doi.org/10.1249/MSS.0000000000001939

Franklin, B. A., Eijsvogels, T. M. H., Pandey, A., Quindry, J., & Toth, P. P. (2022). Physical activity, cardiorespiratory fitness, and cardiovascular health: A clinical practice statement of the American Society for Preventive Cardiology Part II: Physical activity, cardiorespiratory fitness, minimum and goal intensities for exercise training, prescriptive methods, and special patient populations. American Journal of Preventive Cardiology, 12, 100425. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajpc.2022.100425

Bonikowske, A. R., Taylor, J. L., Larson, K. F., Hardwick, J., Ozemek, C., Harber, M. P., et al. (2024). Evaluating current assessment techniques of cardiorespiratory fitness. Expert Review of Cardiovascular Therapy, 22(6), 231–241. https://doi.org/10.1080/14779072.2024.2363393

Rowe, S. J., Paratz, E. D., Foulkes, S. J., Janssens, K., Spencer, L. W., Fahy, L., et al. (2023). Understanding exercise capacity: From elite athlete to HFpEF. Canadian Journal of Cardiology, 39(11S), S323–S334. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cjca.2023.08.007

Lang, J. J., Prince, S. A., Merucci, K., Cadenas-Sanchez, C., Chaput, J. P., Fraser, B. J., et al. (2024). Cardiorespiratory fitness is a strong and consistent predictor of morbidity and mortality among adults: An overview of meta-analyses representing over 20.9 million observations from 199 unique cohort studies. British Journal of Sports Medicine, 58(10), 556–566. https://doi.org/10.1136/bjsports-2023-107849

Kokkinos, P., Faselis, C., Samuel, I. B. H., Pittaras, A., Doumas, M., Murphy, R., et al. (2022). Cardiorespiratory fitness and mortality risk across the spectra of age, race, and sex. Journal of the American College of Cardiology, 80(6), 598–609. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacc.2022.05.031

Myers, J., Cadenas-Sanchez, C., Ross, R., & Kokkinos, P. (2024). The critical role of cardiorespiratory fitness in disease prevention. The Journal of Sports Medicine and Physical Fitness, 64(12), 1361–1371. https://doi.org/10.23736/S0022-4707.24.16159-2

Singh, B., Cadenas-Sanchez, C., da Costa, B. G. G., Castro-Pinero, J., Chaput, J. P., Cuenca-Garcia, M., et al. (2025). Comparison of objectively measured and estimated cardiorespiratory fitness to predict all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality in adults: A systematic review and meta-analysis of 42 studies representing 35 cohorts and 3.8 million observations. Journal of Sport and Health Science, 14, 100986. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jshs.2024.100986

Qiu, S., Cai, X., Sun, Z., Wu, T., & Schumann, U. (2021). Is estimated cardiorespiratory fitness an effective predictor for cardiovascular and all-cause mortality? A meta-analysis. Atherosclerosis, 330, 22–28. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atherosclerosis.2021.06.904

Liu, Y., Zhu, J., Guo, Z., Yu, J., Zhang, X., Ge, H., & Zhu, Y. (2023). Estimated cardiorespiratory fitness and incident risk of cardiovascular disease in China. BMC Public Health, 23, 2338. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-16864-5

Zhu, Y. J., Fu, W. R., Lu, W. J., Wang, X. L., Wang, X., Shan, Y. G., et al. (2025). Non-exercise estimated cardiorespiratory fitness and mortality among adults with hypertension. American Journal of Hypertension, 38(1), 63–71. https://doi.org/10.1093/ajh/hpae137

Kodama, S., Saito, K., Tanaka, S., Maki, M., Yachi, Y., Asumi, M., et al. (2009). Cardiorespiratory fitness as a quantitative predictor of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular events in healthy men and women: A meta-analysis. JAMA, 301(19), 2024–2035. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2009.681

Laukkanen, J. A., Isiozor, N. M., & Kunutsor, S. K. (2022). Objectively assessed cardiorespiratory fitness and all-cause mortality risk: An updated meta-analysis of 37 cohort studies involving 2,258,029 participants. Mayo Clinic Proceedings, 97(6), 1054–1073. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mayocp.2022.02.029

Kokkinos, P., Myers, J., Kokkinos, J. P., Pittaras, A., Narayan, P., Manolis, A., et al. (2008). Exercise capacity and mortality in Black and White men. Circulation, 117(5), 614–622. https://doi.org/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.107.734764

Mandsager, K., Harb, S., Cremer, P., Phelan, D., Nissen, S. E., & Jaber, W. (2018). Association of cardiorespiratory fitness with long-term mortality among adults undergoing exercise treadmill testing. JAMA Network Open, 1(6), e183605. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2018.3605

Huang, W. M., Chang, H. C., Chen, C. N., Huang, C. J., Yu, W. C., Cheng, H. M., et al. (2023). Symptom-limited exercise capacity is associated with long-term survival. Medicine, 102(39), e34948. https://doi.org/10.1097/MD.0000000000034948

Blair, S. N., Kohl, H. W., 3rd., Barlow, C. E., Paffenbarger, R. S., Jr., Gibbons, L. W., & Macera, C. A. (1995). Changes in physical fitness and all-cause mortality: A prospective study of healthy and unhealthy men. JAMA, 273(14), 1093–1098. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.1995.03520380029031

Kokkinos, P., Faselis, C., Samuel, I. B. H., Lavie, C. J., Zhang, J., Vargas, J. D., et al. (2023). Changes in cardiorespiratory fitness and survival in patients with or without cardiovascular disease. Journal of the American College of Cardiology, 81(12), 1137–1147. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacc.2023.01.027

Pettee Gabriel, K., Jaeger, B. C., Lewis, C. E., Sidney, S., Dooley, E. E., Carnethon, M. R., et al. (2023). Analysis of cardiorespiratory fitness in early adulthood and midlife with all-cause mortality and fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular disease. JAMA Network Open, 6(2), e230842. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.0842

Aker, A., Saliba, W., Bahouth, F., Naoum, I., & Zafrir, B. (2023). Cardiorespiratory fitness and risk of cardiovascular events and mortality in middle age patients without known cardiovascular disease. Journal of Clinical Medicine, 12(22), 7011. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm12227011

Farrell, S. W., Finley, C. E., Radford, N. B., & Haskell, W. L. (2013). Cardiorespiratory fitness, body mass index, and heart failure mortality in men: Cooper Center Longitudinal Study. Circulation: Heart Failure, 6(5), 898–905. https://doi.org/10.1161/CIRCHEARTFAILURE.112.000088

Jae, S. Y., Franklin, B. A., Kurl, S., Fernhall, B., Kunutsor, S. K., Kauhanen, J., et al. (2018). Effect of cardiorespiratory fitness on risk of sudden cardiac death in overweight/obese men aged 42 to 60 years. American Journal of Cardiology, 122(5), 775–779. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amjcard.2018.05.017

Collings, P. J., Wang, M., Chen, Z., Shi, Q., Luo, S., Au Yeung, S. L., et al. (2026). Cardiorespiratory fitness, genetic risk, and incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular events: A prospective cohort study. Mayo Clinic Proceedings, 101(5), 782–795. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mayocp.2025.07.036

Weeldreyer, N. R., De Guzman, J. C., Paterson, C., Allen, J. D., Gaesser, G. A., & Angadi, S. S. (2025). Cardiorespiratory fitness, body mass index and mortality: A systematic review and meta-analysis. British Journal of Sports Medicine, 59(5), 339–346. https://doi.org/10.1136/bjsports-2024-108748

Farrell, S. W., Fitzgerald, S. J., McAuley, P. A., & Barlow, C. E. (2010). Cardiorespiratory fitness, adiposity, and all-cause mortality in women. Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise, 42(11), 2006–2012. https://doi.org/10.1249/MSS.0b013e3181df12bf

Farrell, S. W., Barlow, C. E., Willis, B. L., Leonard, D., Pavlovic, A., DeFina, L. F., et al. (2020). Cardiorespiratory fitness, different measures of adiposity, and cardiovascular disease mortality risk in women. Journal of Women's Health, 29(3), 319–326. https://doi.org/10.1089/jwh.2019.7793

Haidar, A., & Horwich, T. (2023). Obesity, cardiorespiratory fitness, and cardiovascular disease. Current Cardiology Reports, 25(11), 1565–1571. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11886-023-01975-7

Church, T. S., LaMonte, M. J., Barlow, C. E., & Blair, S. N. (2005). Cardiorespiratory fitness and body mass index as predictors of cardiovascular disease mortality among men with diabetes. Archives of Internal Medicine, 165(18), 2114–2120. https://doi.org/10.1001/archinte.165.18.2114

Church, T. S., Cheng, Y. J., Earnest, C. P., Barlow, C. E., Gibbons, L. W., Priest, E. L., et al. (2004). Exercise capacity and body composition as predictors of mortality among men with diabetes. Diabetes Care, 27(1), 83–88. https://doi.org/10.2337/diacare.27.1.83

Tadic, M., Grassi, G., & Cuspidi, C. (2021). Cardiorespiratory fitness in patients with type 2 diabetes: A missing piece of the puzzle. Heart Failure Reviews, 26(2), 301–308. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10741-020-10015-3

Goel, K., Thomas, R. J., Squires, R. W., Coutinho, T., Trejo-Gutierrez, J. F., Somers, V. K., et al. (2011). Combined effect of cardiorespiratory fitness and adiposity on mortality in patients with coronary artery disease. American Heart Journal, 161(3), 590–597. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ahj.2010.12.012

McGregor, G., Powell, R., Begg, B., Birkett, S. T., Nichols, S., Ennis, S., et al. (2023). High-intensity interval training in cardiac rehabilitation: A multi-centre randomized controlled trial. European Journal of Preventive Cardiology, 30(9), 745–755. https://doi.org/10.1093/eurjpc/zwad039

Wang, C., Xing, J., Zhao, B., Wang, Y., Zhang, L., Wang, Y., et al. (2022). The effects of high-intensity interval training on exercise capacity and prognosis in heart failure and coronary artery disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Cardiovascular Therapeutics, 2022, 4273809. https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/4273809

Taylor, J. L., Myers, J., & Bonikowske, A. R. (2023). Practical guidelines for exercise prescription in patients with chronic heart failure. Heart Failure Reviews, 28(6), 1285–1296. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10741-023-10310-9

Mora, J. C., & Valencia, W. M. (2018). Exercise and older adults. Clinics in Geriatric Medicine, 34(1), 145–162. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cger.2017.08.007

Izquierdo, M., Merchant, R. A., Morley, J. E., Anker, S. D., Aprahamian, I., Arai, H., et al. (2021). International exercise recommendations in older adults (ICFSR): Expert consensus guidelines. The Journal of Nutrition, Health & Aging, 25(7), 824–853. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12603-021-1665-8

Downloads

Published

2026-09-14

How to Cite

Pietrończyk, J., Kaczmarek, K., Wieczorek, Z., Zawada, W., Tartas, I., Romaniuk, V., Szuleta, U., Benecka, A., Benecka, A., Prankiewicz, N., & Leszczyńska, Z. J. (2026). CARDIORESPIRATORY FITNESS, VO2max, AND EXERCISE CAPACITY AS PREDICTORS OF CARDIOVASCULAR RISK AND MORTALITY: A NARRATIVE REVIEW. International Journal of Innovative Technologies in Social Science, 3(3(51). https://doi.org/10.31435/ijitss.3(51).2026.6616

Most read articles by the same author(s)