MONGOLIAN NATIONAL SECURITY BETWEEN TWO GREAT POWERS HISTORICAL EXPERIENCE AND LESSONS

Abstract

This article examines how Mongolia has protected its independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity since 1911 under the immutable geographic condition of sharing borders only with Russia and China. Using historical document analysis, process tracing, and comparative periodization, it assesses primary and scholarly sources concerning the 1912 Russo-Mongolian Agreement, the 1915 Tripartite Treaty of Kyakhta, the 1936 Protocol of Mutual Assistance, the 1945 Yalta arrangement and independence plebiscite, Mongolia's admission to the United Nations in 1961, and the post-1990 concepts of national security, foreign policy, and nuclear-weapon-free status. The study argues that Mongolia's security has not resulted from a simple policy of keeping equal distance from its two neighbors. It has been most resilient when four elements were combined according to the nature of the threat: domestic state capacity, a workable balance in relations with the neighboring powers, international legal recognition, and diversified external partnerships. The abolition of autonomy in 1919 demonstrates that external backing cannot substitute for viable domestic institutions. The alliance-centered security system from the 1930s to the 1980s protected Mongolia against immediate military threats but also narrowed strategic autonomy. Since 1990, a multi-pillar foreign policy and the third-neighbor approach have widened Mongolia's diplomatic room for maneuver, although concentrated trade routes, markets, energy supplies, and infrastructure continue to create structural vulnerability. The article concludes that Mongolia should treat stable and mutually beneficial relations with both neighbors as the foundation of national security while using international law, third-neighbor partnerships, and national resilience to expand its strategic autonomy.